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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/19 11:36

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Trade is lower across the board at midday with light downside momentum.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow up 30. The interest 
rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 10 lower. Energies are 
mostly lower with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold narrowly mixed.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating into 
fresh one-week low with harvest pressure picking up. Ethanol margins are stable 
but some seasonal shut downs could slightly lower usage near term. The weekly 
report Monday afternoon showed conditions unchanged at 61% good to excellent 
and 13% poor to very poor which the market viewed as favorable for market 
bears. Progress numbers were at 86% dented, 4 percentage points behind average, 
34% mature, 13% behind average, and 7% harvested, 4 percentage points behind 
average. The weather should allow good maturation in the week ahead. On the 
December chart support is at the $3.44 1/4 low with resistance at $3.54 1/4, 
where we find the 10-day and 20-day moving averages; which are also the lowest 
major moving averages. The technical trend remains down with trade below all 
major moving averages and we are not in oversold conditions at this juncture. 


   Soybean trade is 7 cents lower at midday with trade seeing harvest pressure, 
along with the string of sales on the daily wire being broken. Meal is $4 to $5 
lower and oil is 10 points higher. South America looks to remain mostly dry 
near term with major planting progress just around the corner so the extended 
forecasts are drawing more attention. The weekly crop conditions had 59% rated 
good to excellent, down 1% on the week. This should help give light support 
tonight. Progress numbers listed 41% dropping leaves, 2% behind average, and 4% 
harvested, 1% behind average. The daily export wire is expected to remain 
active going forward even as we had nothing to announce today. On the November 
chart support was at the 10-day moving average at $9.65 which is now 
resistance, with the 200-day at $9.79 3/4 major resistance. The 20-day at $9.54 
is new support.


   Wheat trade is 5 to 8 cents lower at midday with the weaker row crop trade 
overcoming the early supportive trade. We remain within the recent range on 
winter wheat, and at the lower end on spring wheat. Australia continues to see 
some struggles as the crop emerges from dormancy, while the large Russian crop 
will continue to keep pressure on the ability of the US to compete on the world 
market, even as the dollar values remain soft. Egypt is starting to look around 
for cargos again. Winter wheat planting was 2% behind average at 13%, and 
spring wheat harvest is complete. On the December KC contract we slipped below 
the 20-day at $4.37 with longer term support the $4.20 contract lows with 
resistance at the recent high at $4.51 3/4, with the 50-day at 4.74 above that.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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